Strong performance in the Chinese market offsets the impact of slowing growth in North America, with SHFE tin prices maintaining volatile movements [SMM Tin Morning News]

SMM Tin Morning News on June 17, 2025:

Futures Market: The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2507) pulled back slightly after a small rally during the night session, closing at 264,390 yuan/mt, down 0.05% from the previous day.

Macro: (1) Global NEV sales reached 1.6 million units in May, up 24% YoY. The strong performance in the Chinese market offset the impact of slowing growth in North America. (Bullish ★) (2) Xin Yongfei, Director of the Policy and Economics Research Institute at the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology under the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), stated on June 16 that in recent years, China has continuously strengthened the dominant position of enterprises in innovation, optimized and improved management mechanisms, and is formulating policies to cultivate and expand unicorn enterprises. Support for the high-quality development of specialized and sophisticated small and medium-sized enterprises has been continuously increased. (Bullish ★) (3) Tariffs - ① Trump announced that the UK and the US have signed a trade agreement, and Lutnick will determine the exemption quotas for steel and aluminum tariffs. ② Reports indicate that the EU is prepared to conditionally accept a uniform 10% tariff from the US, with the EU calling the claim speculative. ③ India and the US plan to sign an interim agreement before July 9. ④ The leaders of Japan and the US held a brief meeting during the G7 Summit, with unclear progress in trade negotiations. ⑤ Trump stated that the US-Canada agreement must include tariffs, while Canada expressed that tariffs on Canadian exports should be eliminated.

Fundamentals: (1) Supply-side disruptions: Overall tin ore supply in major production areas such as Yunnan has tightened. As June progresses, some smelters are considering halting production for maintenance or slightly cutting production. (Bullish ★) (2) Demand side: Recently, as tin prices have returned to the 260,000 yuan threshold, orders from most downstream enterprises have decreased, and purchase willingness has weakened.

Spot Market: Trading in the spot market has been sluggish, with weak traditional consumption: Consumer electronics (mobile phones, PCs) have entered the off-season, with orders weakening MoM. Tinplate demand from the food and beverage can industry has been weak, leading to low restocking willingness among enterprises.